Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has to take into account NATO's . We use cookies to personalise content and ads. Only fully democratic counties can be members of NATO. Delivered Wednesday & Sunday. Policy-makers in the American seats of power clearly want to prevent even the weak but potentially growing cooperation between Germany with its European allies and Russia or China, which had been . No large protests. Geography plays a key role in the outcome of conflicts. This alliance of autocracies, as Steven Lee Myers aptly deemed it, is built on a mutual belief that the Wests supremacy has declined, and that as great powers, China and Russia are entitled to rule their own spheres of influence and to use brute force to suppress human rights, self-determination and democracy. . I have previously written about the forces that have driven the burgeoning alliance between China and Russia, including in The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and Americas Crisis as well as The End of Democracy? With Beijing and Moscow ramping up their military capabilities, does NATO have the power to stop them? Although not officially an American ally, there is a chance the US would come to Taiwans defense if it was attacked by China. These differences may also be crucial in determining the outcome of any war between China and NATO. People attend a demonstration against Russia's war on Ukraine to mark the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in Vilnius, Lithuania, Friday, Feb. 24, 2023. Opinion | This is a key reason why China is not a member state. Chinas main land dispute is over Taiwan, which is not a NATO member. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said China's failure to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine represents a "serious challenge" to the entire North Atlantic alliance. With a naval fleet comprised of 777 ships and two aircraft carriers, Beijing's forces dominate in the region. Fri, Feb 24, 2023 LOGIN Subscribe for $1 First, Washington should increase defense spending. Stoltenberg spoke . Below is a breakdown of NATOs military strength compared to Chinas: As we can see, the combined armies of all NATO members are considerably stronger than Chinas Armed Forces. 2 March 2023 at 07:34. . Relations between the United States and China seem to be getting frostier by the day. Copyright 2019 ArmedForces.eu. did not have to be awakened. They point to Chinas power and Asias wealth and argue that Asia should be the priority. There is the definite possibility of conflict between the two over Taiwan. and win, a nuclear war with Russia. Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and senior director of the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. A hypothetical military alliance between China and Russia. and Watch the conversation or read the condensed transcript. The US spends more on defence than the next nine big spenders in the world combined. Thank goodness, former U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt did not choose victory in only one theater during World War II. Washington Must Prepare for War With Both Russia and China, Want to read more on this topic or region? Some information is indicative and estimated because of lack of official or up-to-date data. Putin has shown a clear interest in resurrecting the former Russian Empire, and other vulnerable Eastern European countriesPoland, Romania, or the Baltic statesmight be next. Does NATOs larger military mean it could defeat China? China, Russia and South Africa are holding naval drills in the Indian Ocean this week. Create an FP account to save articles to read later and in the FP mobile app. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? The 2010 document made no mention of China, but the new one addressed Beijing's . If you simply compare the size of the Chinese armed forces against the combined strength of NATO, it would appear that China would lose a war. The American CIA later confirmed that the bombing was directed by them but continued to state it was an accident. Russia vs Nato war: Who will win? With a reelection campaign on the horizon, and opposition to the war growing on the political right, Biden could soon lack both the political capital and the actual power to ensure that the U.S. sustains its current level of support for Ukraine. Asked whether NATO has any indication that China might be ready to provide arms or other support to Russias war, Stoltenberg said: We have seen some signs that they may be planning for that and of course NATO allies, the United States, have been warning against it because this is something that should not happen. Putin has found an economic lifeline in Beijing that only Washington can destroy. The new Russian soldier doesn't come cheap, although at a cost of $65,000 per year, he is nearly a third less expensive than his NATO and American counterpart. Even if Moscow holds onto territory, the war has wrecked its future. Russias long-term economic outlook is even worse. Beijing and Moscow have invested heavily in their militaries, but only boast around 3,000 and 4,000 total aircraft respectively. The following states joined the treaty after 1949: Greece, Germany, Turkey and Spain. Others have expressed hope that Washington can peel these powers apart or even align with Russia against China, but these are not realistic solutions. FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. We must improve engagement with our allies, demonstrate Americas commitment to defending democracy and use the full economic and military potential of the combined Western world in order to uphold the values we hold so dear. Throughout the war, the US and other NATO allies have been steadily increasing the amount of security assistance for Ukraine, outfitting Kyiv with billions of dollars in advanced artillery systems, missile defense batteries, and other deadly weapons. It is not clear if NATO could defeat China in a war. Russia has invaded its' former Republics and thus causing NATO to declare war on them. This means that if a war did break-out over Taiwan, it would likely be between China and some Western countries (as well as possibly other countries in East Asia), but not against the entire NATO alliance. Weekly update on developments in India and its neighbors. However, China is thousands of miles away from any NATO member and it is almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault on a NATO member state. The pause in releasing Bidens defense strategy provides an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and get this right. There is now little doubt that Putin failed in his initial goals: Kyiv is still Show morestanding, Ukrainians are determined to keep fighting, and the West has so far stayed resolute in its support of Ukraine. Moreover, the United States is not France; it is not compelled to make gut-wrenching strategic choices about its national security due to constrained resources. To be clear, it is incumbent on the White House to communicate to Beijing that supplying lethal aid to Russia would be met with economic consequences and cause irreparable damage to Chinas relationship with the West. Delivered Thursday. His latest book is The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy From the Ancient World to the U.S. and China. Delivered Wednesday. Weve linked to the paperback on Amazon.com. Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as he arrives for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting Nov. 11, 2014. Apart from supplying military equipment, the alliance has resisted calls for direct intervention. Yet again, NATO comes out best with over 2000 ships and a huge 17 aircraft carriers. Register to read and get full access to gulfnews.com, By clicking below to sign up, you're agreeing to our In Germany and Britain, left-wing organizations brought thousands into the streets to condemn NATO . Geographically, the combined territory of all the countries NATO is larger than China although both are enormous. Some had hoped that the two countrys divergent geopolitical objectives, and the combined economic and political impacts from Russias protracted war would entice Chinese President Xi Jinping to reconsider whether the no limits friendship between the two nations actually did have its limit. Watchthe conversation onFP Live, the magazines forum for live journalism, orreada condensed transcript. Your guide to the most important world stories of the day. The leading Nato power, the US, has an army of active 1.346 million soldiers. Affiliate programs mean if you follow some links on this site and make a purchase, at no additional cost to you, Global Affairs Explained will receive a commission. An alliance between two of the worlds most powerful despots leading an axis of evil with Iran and North Korea poses a unique and immense threat to the democratic values we cherish. Answer (1 of 62): I see alot of Americans here with an idea that such a war between NATO and Russia and China would be an easy win. The other countries involved will include several ex-Soviet nations, China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua and Syria. Our live coverage of Russia's war in Ukraine has moved here. Nato has so far remained on the sidelines, theoretically. It is unlikely, although not impossible, that China launches a pre-emptive strike against US forces in Asia as part of an assault on Taiwan. Want to read more on this topic or region? Chinese opinion turned further against the alliance when later newspaper reports suggested the attack was a deliberate action by NATO as they thought the embassy was being used to send communications for the Yugoslav army. A good strategy starts with clear goalsand Washingtons objectives are to maintain peace and stability in both Europe and Asia. Contrary to those who claim that constrained resources will force tough choices, the United States can afford to outspend Russia and China at the same time. It is not in their strategic interest to do so and there is little reason why they would. As the Russia-Ukraine war continues beyond its first year, the anti-war movement is growing. In recent decades China has risen to become a major global power. This week marks exactly one year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. NATOs chief says the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. This is especially critical in light of recent reports from American intelligence agencies that China may supply Russia with weapons to aid its war against Ukraine, which would be an alarming escalation and a break from Chinas ostensibly neutral stance on the war. Actually, there are a two clear reasons why China is not in NATO: Only countries in Europe or North America can join NATO. The Eastern European Countries (Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc.) The overall size of a military force is often not enough to determine the outcome of a conflict. Between the lie about not expanding NATO and the events which started one year ago, there were so many developments which cannot be overlooked. Essential analysis of the stories shaping geopolitics on the continent. So far, more . Countries in Asia cannot be members of NATO. China, as an authoritarian power, can mobilize its population behind a conflict more easily. You can change your cookie settings at any time. Recently, China held military drills near Taiwan after US politician Nancy Pelosi ignored warnings by Beijing and visited the island. Immediately, the Biden administration can send a strong message to Beijing and Moscow by ramping up the number of U.S. soldiers we have stationed in Asia, as a deterrent to Chinese designs on Taiwan. Preexisting formal alliances like NATO in Europe and bilateral alliances in Asia can be supplemented with new arrangements, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Its leaders know that a war with Russia will be MAD (mutually assured destruction). Many in China strongly dislike NATO due to this action. Therefore, there almost certainly wont be a war between NATO and China. Russian media has bragged that the country has night vision technology that is even better than what the U.S. military has. NATO allies also dominate in the air with over 20,000 total aircraft. He stressed that while NATO is no party to the Ukraine conflict its tasks are to ensure that Ukraine prevails and to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine and becoming a full-fledged war between Russia and NATO., He said the main message from the meeting in Warsaw was that we will provide support to Ukraine for as long as it takes., It would be a "tragedy for the Ukrainians if President Putin wins in Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, and also dangerous for all of us because it would send the message to all authoritarian leaders that when they use military force, they get what they want.. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia's naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. but thats just an overview. The repeated calls have somehow been so effective that a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that a broad bipartisan majority of Americans, 74 per cent, think the US should work with Nato to set up no-fly zones to protect Ukraine from Russian air strikes.. European allies should invest in armor and artillery while Asian allies buy naval mines, harpoon missiles, and submarines. He told Deutsche Welle: "In the first part of August, China conducted missile tests, large-scale air and sea exercises, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion against Taiwan. Crediting former Russian Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov for the strategic RIC grouping, he said, "RIC is a platform for India and China in our presence, because they might not feel comfortable being one-on-one all the time to find some additional common grounds." The Biden administration has passed landmark legislations such as theInflation Reduction Act(IRA) and theCHIPS and Science Act, which provide subsidies in clean energy and semiconductoShow morers worth well over $400 billion. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. However, as Chinas influence has grown it has begun to challenge the dominance of Western powers. If big boys China and Russia can work together, others can join and feel . The core principle of Nato is collective defence. Following the implementation of international sanctions during the war, China provided economic relief to Russia. The U.S. Army should prioritize Europe while the U.S. Navy takes the Indo-Pacific and a larger U.S. Air Force plays a significant role in both theaters. Californias bullet train almost seems designed to discredit state government Therefore, China would need to attack Europe for a full war to breakout between China and NATO. Orwell's prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. A successful Russian incursion into a NATO allys territory could mean the end of the Western alliance and the credibility of U.S. security commitments globally. Similarly, the United States could rely on threatening nonstrategic nuclear strikes to deter and, as a last resort, thwart a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan or a Russian tank incursion into Europe. Then other neighbouring countries may be next.". Emma Ashford: You know, I spent all weekend waiting for World War III to start, but . subscription, What elections in small states tell us about India, Watch Nidhi Razdan: Historic verdict by India top court, Enough of Aditya Chopra. At sea, China's navy has been threatening neighbouring countries for years. This would allow them to dominate the skies in any conflict between them. Argument: Managing public perception about the war to control the narrative and maintain support seems to have required a divorce between what NATO officials are telling Ukraine privately and what they are telling the public they are telling Ukraine. A final point we should consider when discussing China and NATO is why isnt China a NATO member? A twenty-year strategic treaty extended or another 5 years after its expiration in February 2022. Police dog debate is barking up the wrong tree standing, Ukrainians are determined to keep fighting, and the West has so far stayed resolute in its support of Ukraine. It appears clear that the combined armies of NATO countries are stronger than China. In many ways, this is key to understanding relations between China and the military alliance. Washington Must Prepare for War With Both Russia and China. The link is to the book on Amazon.com. Now, lets look at the data. All information comes from wikipedia.org, cia.gov, icanw.org, government websites and press releases. China claims Taiwan as an integral part of its territory. China is the world's most populous country, with a population of more than 1.4 billion people, on the other hand Russia is the largest country in the world by area, covering over 17,098,246 square kilometres. You may opt out at any time. Its total in 2021 was estimated to be $801bn, according to Statista. NEW FOR SUBSCRIBERS: The country's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, has said this week that China's recent military exercises show that an invasion is being planned. Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told NBC News on Tuesday that the U.S. needs to be careful not to send too much military hardware to Ukraine or it could risk . have been reawakened to the danger Russia presents. The latest news, analysis, and data from the country each week. 'The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn't change course is that we're going to lose fast,' Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, the . And they've deployed recently upgraded . 2 They preened like WWE wrestlers pacing around the ring before a title bout.